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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+143/-198).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Aaron Jones has earned 57.9% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 39.3% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least touchdowns in the league (0.62 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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