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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-228).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +172 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +162.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

Aaron Jones has received 46.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in run blocking.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 38.7% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have run for the least touchdowns in the NFL (0.22 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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