Aaron Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has been given 40.9% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 4th-least run-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 37.7% red zone run rate.
Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-least touchdowns in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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