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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+112/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • This week, Aaron Jones is projected by the model to find himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.2 targets.
  • Aaron Jones ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 18.3 mark since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • Aaron Jones's receiving performance has diminished this year, notching a measly 1.2 adjusted catches vs 3.0 last year.
  • Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 88.8% to 62.4%.
  • This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a feeble 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

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