Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 7, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 28.14 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Vikings to be the 8th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.
The projections expect Aaron Jones to accrue 5.9 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Aaron Jones has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this year (19.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (10.9%).

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.8 per game) this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.6%) to RBs since the start of last season (78.6%).
The Jets linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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