Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among running backs with 4.4 targets.
Aaron Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 13.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Aaron Jones checks in as one of the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
The Vikings pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.3%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (85.3%).

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
Aaron Jones's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 82.4% to 61.7%.
The Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

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