Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-148/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused team in football (62.8% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Green Bay Packers.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the model to finish in the 86th percentile among RBs with 4.0 targets.
With an exceptional 13.4% Target% (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones stands among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.
The Packers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
With an excellent 3.3 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones stands among the best pass-game running backs in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Packers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.2 plays per game.
Aaron Jones's 50.5% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a a significant decline in his pass-catching ability over last year's 82.4% mark.

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