Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the projection model to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Aaron Jones's 41.3% Route Participation Rate this season marks a meaningful decline in his passing attack utilization over last season's 51.3% rate.
Aaron Jones's 73.1% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 82.4% figure.

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