Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
In this week's game, Aaron Jones is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.0 targets.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year.
Aaron Jones is positioned as one of the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging an exceptional 2.8 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
Aaron Jones's 39.8% Route% this year reflects a noteworthy decrease in his passing offense volume over last year's 51.3% rate.
Aaron Jones's 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a substantial regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 82.4% mark.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.8%) vs. running backs this year (64.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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