Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 13.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Aaron Jones has been among the best pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (84.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the 10th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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