Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+131/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
Aaron Jones has run a route on 57.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been among the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 2.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Aaron Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.8% to 76.1%.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (71.4%) versus running backs this year (71.4%).

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