Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has run a route on 58.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been among the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an impressive 2.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 82.8% to 76.9%.

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