Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 4:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+136/-187).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -187.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has run a route on 56.8% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to garner 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has been among the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a stellar 3.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (84.8%).
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.

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