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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 13.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has been among the best RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (83.6%) versus running backs since the start of last season (83.6%).

The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.8% to 79.0%.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

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