Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+146/-204).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -157 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -204.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 14.2% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Aaron Jones has been among the leading RB receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 3.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (77.4%) vs. RBs this year (77.4%).
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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