Aaron Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+129/-173).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -153 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 5.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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