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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-113/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • This week, Aaron Jones is projected by the model to find himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.2 targets.
  • Aaron Jones has totaled a massive 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • Aaron Jones has posted significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
  • Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 88.8% to 62.4%.
  • This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a feeble 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

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