Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The the Packers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (84.8%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (84.8%).
The Raiders pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, allowing 6.66 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.
As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

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