Aaron Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to garner 6.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (74.1%) versus running backs since the start of last season (74.1%).
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, allowing 5.27 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.28 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.