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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+439/-1006).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -989 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1006.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
  • Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 10.3% this year, which ranks him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
  • Aaron Jones's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 78th percentile for RBs.
  • Aaron Jones ranks in the 86th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.17 per game.
  • The Washington Commanders defense has given up the most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to RBs: 0.50 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
  • Aaron Jones has accrued a paltry -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile among running backs.
  • Aaron Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.8% to 76.1%.

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