My Account Log Out

reorder

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1002).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -960 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1002.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.0% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones's 18.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 89th percentile for running backs.

Aaron Jones grades out in the 92nd percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.

The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (84.8%).

The New York Giants defense has given up the 3rd-most TDs through the air in the NFL to RBs: 0.50 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a giant 8-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.

Aaron Jones has put up a mere -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™