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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1003).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -922 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1003.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Aaron Jones has compiled a whopping 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Aaron Jones's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for RBs.

Aaron Jones grades out in the 99th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.37 per game.

The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (83.6%) versus running backs since the start of last season (83.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.8% to 79.0%.

The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 7th-least passing touchdowns in football to RBs: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.

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