Aaron Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1003).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -922 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1003.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has compiled a whopping 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Aaron Jones's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for RBs.
Aaron Jones grades out in the 99th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.37 per game.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (83.6%) versus running backs since the start of last season (83.6%).

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.8% to 79.0%.
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 7th-least passing touchdowns in football to RBs: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.