Aaron Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-873).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +431 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +405.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Aaron Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.4% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has posted a whopping 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Aaron Jones's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 92nd percentile for running backs.
Aaron Jones ranks in the 99th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.39 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.