Aaron Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+269/-461).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +379 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +269.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has accrued a colossal 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 92nd percentile for running backs.
Aaron Jones grades out in the 98th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.

Favors Under

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 82.8% to 62.1%.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.