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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-994).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -985 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -994.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

Aaron Jones has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 9.8% this year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones's 19.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 89th percentile for running backs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Aaron Jones ranks in the 94th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.27 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Aaron Jones has totaled a measly -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 4th percentile among running backs.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 7th-least passing TDs in the league to RBs: 0.10 per game this year.

The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers rank as the 9th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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