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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+308/-556).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +320 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +308.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.

Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 13.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 90th percentile among RBs.

Aaron Jones has notched a whopping 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (74.1%) versus running backs since the start of last season (74.1%).

The Minnesota Vikings linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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