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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The model projects the Vikings to be the 2nd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

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