Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 3, 2024 10:46 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is implied by the Vikings being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.7 rush attempts.
Aaron Jones has garnered 60.1% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to run on 40.0% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.1 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Indianapolis's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 8th-best in the NFL.