Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 9, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 88th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 57.3% of the workload in his team's run game.

Favors Under

The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-least run-focused offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.7% run rate.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 55.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's DT corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

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