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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-128/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -101.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.

In this contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 13.6 carries.

Out of all RBs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 80th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 47.3% of the workload in his team's run game.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.

When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Los Angeles's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.

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