Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Aaron Jones has been given 42.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.9% run rate.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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