Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 13.5 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has earned 51.8% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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