Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accrue 14.0 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has earned 53.9% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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