Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 14.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has earned 52.7% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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