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Zay Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Right now, Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Jones for a 5.5% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Jones's 68.4% completion rate marks him in the #67 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Chargers cornerbacks rank #29 in pass coverage.The Raiders enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.4% of the time (#8 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Las Vegas to drop back to pass on 66.7% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Las Vegas's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.41 seconds on average this year (#11-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Raiders have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
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CONS:
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The Chargers's pass defense ranks #6-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 139 yards per game this season.Las Vegas's O-Line grades out as the #24-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jones open.Las Vegas has run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Jones ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 53.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jones ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 55.5% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Jones ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 11.0% of passes this season.Jones ranks in the #52 percentile and has put up 8.11 yards per target this season.The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 7.93 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #12-highest among NFL opponents.The Los Angeles Chargers rank #18-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.6%.As a unit, the Chargers safeties rank #20 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 63.4 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time. He projects for 55.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.27. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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