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Zay Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 39.7 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Jones for a 7.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Colts safeties rank #25 in pass coverage.The Raiders are a 8.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.0% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Las Vegas to drop back to pass on 68.3% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Las Vegas's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.41 seconds on average this year (#11-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Raiders have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
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CONS:
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The Colts's pass defense ranks #5-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 135 yards per game this season.The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 7.30 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #3-highest among NFL opponents.The Indianapolis Colts rank #6-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 61.4%.As a unit, the Colts cornerbacks rank #10 in pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 59.7 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.Las Vegas's O-Line grades out as the #24-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jones open.Las Vegas has run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Jones ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 52.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jones ranks in the #48 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 53.8% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Jones ranks in the #52 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 9.8% of passes this season.Jones ranks in the #35 percentile and has put up 7.61 yards per target this season.Jones's 66.7% completion rate marks him in the #58 percentile among receivers.In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 58.0% of the time. He projects for 49.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $11.84. That makes its return on investment yield +11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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