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Zack Moss

Zack Moss Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 19.0 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.
  • He has been on the field for 45.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #69 percentile among running backs.
  • Buffalo is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • In terms of efficiency, New England's defense has allowed 4.66 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#23-least in football).
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked box 9.7% of the time this season -- #27-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Moss is projected for -28.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 31.8% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL), and they project to run 31.8% of the time in this contest.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #6 most in the league.

  • Moss has been the #49-leading rusher this season, tallying 29 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Buffalo Bills offensive line has ranked #19 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has received 32.4% of Buffalo's carries this year -- #41 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Buffalo Bills have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Bills project to run 62.1 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 41.4% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots have ranked #20 against the run this year, holding opponents to 117 yards per game on the ground.
  • Patriots defensive ends have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Patriots defensive tackles have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Patriots linebackers have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Patriots safeties have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 4.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 26.6% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $44.08. It's return on investment would yeild 40%.

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