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Zack Moss Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 19.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 45.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #69 percentile among running backs.Buffalo is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.In terms of efficiency, New England's defense has allowed 4.66 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#23-least in football).Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked box 9.7% of the time this season -- #27-most in football.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Moss is projected for -28.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 31.8% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL), and they project to run 31.8% of the time in this contest.The New England Patriots have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #6 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Moss has been the #49-leading rusher this season, tallying 29 yards per game on the ground.The Buffalo Bills offensive line has ranked #19 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 32.4% of Buffalo's carries this year -- #41 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Buffalo Bills have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bills project to run 62.1 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 41.4% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New England Patriots have ranked #20 against the run this year, holding opponents to 117 yards per game on the ground.Patriots defensive ends have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Patriots defensive tackles have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Patriots linebackers have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Patriots safeties have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 4.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 26.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $44.08. It's return on investment would yeild 40%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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