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Zach Wilson

Zach Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 218.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 224.5 @ -115.
  • The New York Jets have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.1% of their targets, ranking #30-best in the NFL.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense ranks #27-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.23.
  • Jacksonville's cornerbacks grade out as the #24-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Jacksonville's linebackers grade out as the #23-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Jaguars linebackers have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • Wilson has passed for 189 yards per game this year, #31-best in the league.
  • He's been the #37-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.0% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #36 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.13 yards per target.
  • This offenses projects to pass 57.5% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Jets offensive line has given Zach Wilson 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-best in football).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).

  • New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#18-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • The Jets project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).
  • Zach Wilson's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this game with the #14-best pass defense this season, allowing 247 yards per game through the air.
  • Jacksonville's safeties grade out as the #12-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

    THE BLITZ sees Wilson putting up 229.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.9% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.31 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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