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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 218.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 224.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The New York Jets have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.1% of their targets, ranking #30-best in the NFL.The Jacksonville Jaguars defense ranks #27-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.23.Jacksonville's cornerbacks grade out as the #24-best in pass coverage this year.Jacksonville's linebackers grade out as the #23-best in pass coverage this year.Jaguars linebackers have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Wilson has passed for 189 yards per game this year, #31-best in the league.He's been the #37-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.0% clip.Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #36 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.13 yards per target.This offenses projects to pass 57.5% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Jets offensive line has given Zach Wilson 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).
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NEUTRAL:
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New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#18-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.The Jets project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).Zach Wilson's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this game with the #14-best pass defense this season, allowing 247 yards per game through the air.Jacksonville's safeties grade out as the #12-best in pass coverage this year.Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Wilson putting up 229.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.31 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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