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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 206.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 211.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 206.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The New York Jets have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.New York is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.3% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Miami Dolphins enter this game with the #31-best pass defense this season, allowing 278 yards per game through the air.Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box on 18.2% of their plays this season, #9-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Wilson has passed for 191 yards per game this year, #31-best in the league.He's been the #36-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.0% clip.Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #34 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.03 yards per target.The Jets project to run 61.9 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.The Jets offensive line has given Zach Wilson 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).The Miami Dolphins have had the #5-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#17-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.This offense passes the ball 62.9% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).Zach Wilson's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.3% of their targets, ranking #12 in the NFL.Miami's defense has been #22-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.92 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Miami Dolphins have had the #20-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Miami Dolphins have had the #18-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Dolphins linebackers have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 249.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 65.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $26.04. It's return on investment would yeild 23%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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