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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 236.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New York is a 5.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 61.7% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Eagles have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.2% of their targets, ranking #31 in the NFL.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #28-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #24-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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CONS:
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Wilson has passed for 178 yards per game this year, #33-best in the league.He's been the #36-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #36 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.09 yards per target.The Jets offensive line has given Zach Wilson 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#10.6%).Philadelphia's defense has been #8-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.48 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #1-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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New York has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jets project to run 63.4 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.0% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).Zach Wilson's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Philadelphia Eagles enter this game with the #13-best pass defense this season, allowing 244 yards per game through the air.Eagles defensive ends have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Eagles linebackers have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box on 15.4% of their plays this season, #14-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 240.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.40. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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