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Zach Pascal

Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -115.
  • Pascal has been on the field for 87.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 93.0% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 15.5% -- #68 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • The Colts project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.
  • Indianapolis is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 62.1% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 32.1% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #29-most yards per target (7.38) against the Buccaneers this season.
  • The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.6% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Pascal is projected for -2.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #30 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).
  • This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).
  • Pascal's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Colts offensive line has given the QB 2.48 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#19-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.8%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 35.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.6% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.53 and with a negative ROI of -4%.

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