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Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 52.4 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Jefferson has been on the field for 74.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.0% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for 3.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.Jacksonville's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#10-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #2-most yards per target (9.54) against the Jaguars this season.The Jaguars have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 76.3% of their targets this season, (#1-most in the league).The Los Angeles Rams have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 65.9% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).Jefferson's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Rams offensive line has given the QB 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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Jefferson has been in the #15 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 55.4% completion rate.Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.Los Angeles is a 14.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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His target share this season has been 15.1% -- #65 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.11 yards per target this season, ranking in the #45 percentile.Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 60.3% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 60.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.58. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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