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Tyrod Taylor Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Houston Texans vs New York Jets
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Tyrod Taylor Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 225.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 223.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 225.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Houston Texans have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Texans project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.The Texans offensive line has given Tyrod Taylor 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.9%).The New York Jets enter this game with the #32-best pass defense this season, allowing 295 yards per game through the air.The Jets have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.9% of their targets, ranking #28 in the NFL.New York's defense has been #32-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 9.15 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Jets have had the #26-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #29-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jets linebackers have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The New York Jets have stacked the box on 20.8% of their plays this season, #3-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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This offense passes the ball 58.4% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 56.8% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Tyrod Taylor's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Jets defensive tackles have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Houston has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.The New York Jets have had the #18-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jets defensive ends have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.New York's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #18-quickest in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 260.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.91. It's return on investment would yeild 17%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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