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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 70.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Hill ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 77.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Hill ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 82.1% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Hill ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 26.6% of passes this season.Hill's 72.9% completion rate marks him in the #84 percentile among receivers.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.As a unit, the Steelers safeties rank #26 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 65.1 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#2 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 60.2% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Hill open.
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CONS:
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The Chiefs are a 11.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Hill for a -1.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Hill ranks in the #64 percentile and has put up 8.53 yards per target this season.The Steelers's pass defense ranks #12-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 141 yards per game this season.The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 8.14 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #16-highest among NFL opponents.The Pittsburgh Steelers rank #12-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.As a unit, the Steelers cornerbacks rank #22 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hill to exceed his player prop total 51.1% of the time. He projects for 72.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.73 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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