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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 65.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 62.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Hill ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 79.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Hill ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 82.9% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Hill ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 27.7% of passes this season.Hill ranks in the #67 percentile and has put up 8.67 yards per target this season.Hill's 73.5% completion rate marks him in the #84 percentile among receivers.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.As a unit, the Broncos cornerbacks rank #24 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #11-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 63.6 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.4% of the time (#2 in the NFL).Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Hill open.
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos rank #5-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 61.3%.The Chiefs are a 11.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Hill for a -0.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Broncos's pass defense ranks #13-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 152 yards per game this season.The Denver Broncos have allowed 7.89 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #11-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Broncos safeties rank #22 in pass coverage.THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 61.6% of their plays in this game (#15-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hill to exceed his player prop total 58.2% of the time. He projects for 77.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $10.15. That makes its return on investment yield +9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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