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Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 18.9 yards.
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PROS:
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Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 72.3% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 71.4% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Johnson's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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Indianapolis's defense has allowed 152 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#23-most in football).The Buccaneers project to run 61.8 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.Tampa Bay is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.7% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Johnson has been on the field for 41.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 42.2% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 7.1% -- #41 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for -0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #58 percentile among wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #21-most yards per target (8.05) against the Colts this season.The Colts have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.2% of their targets this season, (#22-most in the league).Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 23.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.72. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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