| |
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 222.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 225.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 222.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of Completion%, he has been the #13-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.2% clip.The Dolphins enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.8% of the time (#7 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Miami to drop back to pass on 62.9% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Miami's offensive has kept pressure off Tua Tagovailoa for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL).Miami has run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's defensive ends rank #25 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Patriots, they've stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #28-most on the game slate.Miami's O-Line grades out as the #29-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Dolphins have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).New England's #4-ranked pass defense has allowed 212 passing yards per game this year.New England has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.8% of their targets, which ranks them #4-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, New England's defense is #7-best. This is because they allowed 7.22 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New England Patriots have had the #3-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #7-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This year, at #25-best in the league, Tagovailoa has passed for211 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Tagovailoa has been #24 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.92 yards per target.This year, the Dolphins have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #13-fastest paced offense this season.The New England Patriots have had the #11-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's defensive tackles rank #11 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's linebackers rank #11 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Tagovailoa to exceed his player prop total 52.6% of the time. He projects for 229.3 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.95 with a negative ROI of -2%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
