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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 214.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 229.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 214.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Houston's defense has been #30-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.50 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Houston Texans have had the #31-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #31-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #23-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Texans linebackers have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Lawrence has passed for 207 yards per game this year, #28-best in the league.He's been the #35-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.4% clip.Efficiency-wise, Lawrence has been #35 in the NFL this season, averaging 5.77 yards per target.Jacksonville has played in the #21-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Jacksonville is a 6.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 53.3% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).Texans defensive ends have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Jaguars project to run 62.3 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).Trevor Lawrence's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.The Houston Texans enter this game with the #17-best pass defense this season, allowing 254 yards per game through the air.The Texans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.9% of their targets, ranking #17 in the NFL.The Houston Texans have stacked the box on 15.9% of their plays this season, #11-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 194.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $8.95. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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