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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 228.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 227.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 228.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jaguars project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.The Falcons have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.6% of their targets, ranking #30 in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #30-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Falcons defensive ends have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Atlanta's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #25-quickest in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Lawrence has passed for 211 yards per game this year, #26-best in the league.He's been the #32-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.9% clip.Efficiency-wise, Lawrence has been #32 in the NFL this season, averaging 5.92 yards per target.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#11.4%).The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box on 9.1% of their plays this season, #27-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offense passes the ball 59.9% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.5% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Trevor Lawrence's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 26.0% of their passes this year, #16-most in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons enter this game with the #15-best pass defense this season, allowing 254 yards per game through the air.Atlanta's defense has been #18-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.96 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #13-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #21-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Falcons linebackers have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 235.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.72 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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