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Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
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Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 35.2 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Smith has been on the field for 70.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 79.8% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 15.7% -- #68 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.New Orleans is a 11.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).
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CONS:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #31-most yards per target (7.19) against the Buccaneers this season.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 63.9% of their targets this season, (#25-most in the league).Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 57.4% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 52.7% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Smith is projected for 2.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.04 yards per target this season, ranking in the #45 percentile.Smith has been in the #44 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.6% completion rate.Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).The New Orleans Saints have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Saints project to run 62.2 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.Smith's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 43.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.55. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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