My Account Log Out
Tre'Quan Smith

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 35.2 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.
  • Smith has been on the field for 70.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 79.8% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 15.7% -- #68 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • New Orleans is a 11.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).

  • CONS:
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #31-most yards per target (7.19) against the Buccaneers this season.
  • The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 63.9% of their targets this season, (#25-most in the league).
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.4% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 52.7% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Smith is projected for 2.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.04 yards per target this season, ranking in the #45 percentile.
  • Smith has been in the #44 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.6% completion rate.
  • Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).
  • The New Orleans Saints have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Saints project to run 62.2 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
  • Smith's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 43.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.4% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.55. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™